• Satellite Evolution Group

8,137 Smallsats to launch in the next decade, generating $42 billion in cumulative revenue


8,137 Smallsats to launch in the next decade, generating $42 billion in cumulative revenue

NSR’s Small Satellite Markets Report, 6th Edition (SSM6), released today, forecasts the market to yield close to $42 billion in cumulative revenues from smallsat manufacturing and launch services by 2028. While NSR anticipates a partial deployment and a slower ramp-up than publicized, constellations will lead the small satellite market, with 54% of the total market revenues. Mega-constellations - SpaceX’s Starlink, Amazon’s Project Kuiper, and OneWeb - will drive this growth, making communications the dominant application, followed by Earth observation (EO). Smallsat Manufacturing: Small satellites have historically been associated with a low-cost barrier-to-entry; opening doors for new players from all industry backgrounds. This opportunity creates a presence of diverse business models and innovative technologies, boosting growth in developed and developing countries alike. However, due to the ever-increasing competition prices are on a downward trend. “The industry is starting to wonder how long before the price decline reaches a natural saturation point,” notes NSR Senior Analyst and lead report author, Shagun Sachdeva. “While NSR forecasts the manufacturing market to lead revenues; some of the biggest planned systems will be manufactured in-house, thereby lowering the total addressable market for small satellite manufacturers,” Sachdeva added. Smallsat Launch: There are over 130 small launch vehicles currently in development globally. With a diversity of newer launch options coming to market, operators will have more control over their mission needs with more specialized and custom solutions, driving market growth. This increasing competition puts a lot of pressure on the countless newcomers. “With SpaceX and Ariane Group expanding their smallsat rideshare footprint, we will see more exits and consolidation in the market,” comments Leena Pivovarova, NSR Analyst and co-author. She adds: “We are already seeing beginnings of the launch bottleneck easing, but launch delays are expected to continue.” Despite the numerous challenges associated with the small satellite market, the impact – direct or unintended - on the overall space economy is considerable. From the advancement in the ground segment to end of life disposal to Space Situational Awareness, the significance of small satellite market is not limited to the launch and manufacturing markets.

8,137 Smallsats to launch in the next decade, generating $42 billion in cumulative revenue