Dragonfly, a leading security and geopolitical intelligence firm, has launched the Strategic Outlook 2022, its annual forecast on geopolitical, security and crisis risks for the year ahead.
Broken down thematically and geographically, the Strategic Outlook 2022 sets out a detailed picture of the political stability and security landscape for the next 12 months. It provides intelligence-based insights and early warning for leading global organisations to anticipate threats, plan their operations, and sustain their business advantage.
This year’s forecast includes in-depth assessments on the stability prospects for all major regions, such as North America, the Middle-East, Asia, Africa and Europe, with special coverage on Covid-19 disruptions and forecasts for when countries will return to ‘normality’, climate change, and ongoing disruption to global supply chains.
Key trends and forecasts that Dragonfly projects and assesses for 2022 include:
How US President Biden’s approach to the build-up of Russian military forces near the Ukraine border may throw NATO, the EU and the US into a crisis of strategic credibility
Why tensions between Taiwan and China make Asia Pacific the most politically charged region going into 2022, and the outlook for armed conflict over the Taiwan issue in 2022
The prospect of economic decoupling between the US and China and how this may affect western economies
The threat IS-K poses to Taliban control in Afghanistan in 2022 and to global security
How 2022 is likely to see a rising tide of xenophobia, racism, hate crimes, and extreme right wing terrorism in European countries like Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK
How and where Covid-19 is likely to remain the primary operational challenge facing global businesses, as disparity in vaccine rollout among countries means more variants are likely to develop in 2022 and impact economic recovery
How corporations will come under increasing pressure to take positive action on climate change in 2022 amid a rising tide of climate activism on the streets, in AGMs, and in the consumer market
Henry Wilkinson, Chief Intelligence Officer at Dragonfly, says: “What we forecast in 2022 are the implications of deepening systemic shifts in the international system. The rules-based international order continues to weaken in the face of waning US commitment to uphold it, disunity between democracies, and an intensifying spread of authoritarianism.
The landscape remains extremely challenging for global businesses, and the state of world politics is highly unfavourable to meet wide-ranging threats and global risks. These include the impacts of the Covid-19 Omicron variant, strategic competition between the US and China, rising tensions over Ukraine and Taiwan, entrenching conflicts in Africa, widening inequalities globally, and acute and chronic environmental crises.
“Although the geostrategic outlook is generally pessimistic for 2022, chinks of positivity can be found. We anticipate improvements in the Middle East, after years of worsening instability and insecurity, including a probable US-led deal with Iran on its nuclear programme.
The strength of the global economic rebound also suggests many countries and regions will emerge in bruised but reasonable shape in 2022, albeit vulnerable to wider instability and new coronavirus variants that may emerge. This is a positive change from last year, but it is still not a climate where a sense of normalcy is likely to prevail.”