It’s been an eventful year for space – but 2026 might be more eventful still

We’re about to enter a stage in which demand for space data will surge, congestion in radio frequencies will worsen, and the world will search for secure, high-bandwidth alternatives that can operate even in contested settings. The drivers of these changes will be many and various: new entrants into low-Earth orbit, mounting security concerns around undersea cables, the reordering of defense priorities, and rising geopolitical tensions. Both companies and countries will look to those forms of technology that already work at scale – and speed will be a baseline concern.

By Jean-François Morizur, CEO of Cailabs

Jean-François Morizur, CEO of Cailabs

The year of Amazon LEO

In 2026, Amazon’s LEO constellation is likely to provide the first large-scale alternative to Starlink. Far more data than the market has previously seen will be unlocked as a result, and this – predictably – will make transmitting data down to Earth the constraint. Already, radio frequencies are crowded, close to saturation. Constellations, meanwhile, are growing in size and complexity. Operators in defense and other vital sectors want real-time or near-real-time information and physics dictates that the problem of RF saturation won’t go away.

Amazon LEO’s exploration of optical space-to-ground links is therefore worth watching. Laser communications offer clear advantages in respect of bandwidth and security, particularly for specific, high demand use cases. As LEO constellations scale, optical ground stations are likely to play a growing role alongside RF, helping to relieve capacity constraints where required. Taken together, this suggests optical links are moving from experimental deployments toward targeted operational use, rather than representing a wholesale shift in access architecture.

Undersea cables are at risk

For decades, we’ve depended on undersea cables for global connectivity. But events this year have made it plain that this dependence has become a real vulnerability. Recent incidents – in the Middle East, in the North Atlantic and elsewhere – demonstrate these systems are now targets. Repairs, meanwhile, are slow, and oversight is difficult. Disruption carries real economic costs; and with geopolitical tensions rising, we can’t expect this to change any time soon.

As the risk rises, so does demand for alternatives. Space is the obvious answer. But space is no longer a secure environment where the countries of the world come together peaceably for the benefit of humankind. It’s contested, it’s crowded, and it’s increasingly crucial to national security. No advanced economy can afford to depend on a single country or a single technology at a time when connectivity is so vulnerable.

Once again, optical communication furnishes us with a solution. Laser propagates in a narrow beam, which makes the data it carries difficult to intercept and jam. It can be an effective back-up solution to undersea cables: taking the small, but most critical proportion of the data that would otherwise be transmitted underwater. RF could do the job; but since the RF links remain fragile to jamming, it is not a perfect solution. Moreover, the optical link has greater capacity than RF – though it is not enough by far to replace undersea cables.

Europe steps up

The United States, China, Russia – these are the leaders in global space capability. Countries like India, as well as parts of the Middle East, are also making inroads. But Europe will play a bigger role in global space from 2026 onward. The reason for this is simple: the US defense umbrella is no longer as relevant for Europe as it was before and this has led to a major philosophical change for European states. Defense spending is no longer taboo. Since space is now seen as a war-fighting domain, European capacity in this area has to grow.

It’s why we are likely to see more investment both in commercial space and in defense space. Constellations are certain to expand. But consolidation, too, will accelerate, and European countries will cluster round a core of strong players. This is good. Indeed, it’s probably overdue. It will reduce duplication, hasten the delivery of services and technology, and create a more competitive industrial base that can meet the needs of both the commercial and defense sectors.

From theory to practice

There’s a pressing need for defense innovation to accelerate. There are ongoing violent conflicts between nation-states, and geopolitical tensions are rising elsewhere. Governments also need systems they can use now; ten-year development programs won’t cut it. This change in attitude will drive investment across the board. When procurement cycles are faster, there is a greater incentive to innovate and deploy technology that has proven itself. The regulatory pressures which have hindered the growth of space companies for years are likely to ease off. Necessity is the mother of invention and, at this point in history, countries need to be resilient.

From a market viewpoint, this is a decisive shift. Funding will flow more and more to those companies with working products, not those engaged in speculative research. The message is this: build, deliver, and scale.

‘Off-the-shelf’

In Europe as in the US, the agencies charged with procurement are shifting away from slow-moving, bespoke programs, and towards off-the-shelf technology. In practice, this means buying what works, adapting it, and then getting it into the field as quickly as possible. Speed will become a binding, non-negotiable requirement, and the companies that can show their technology works reliably, securely, and can scale easily will eat up the vast bulk of the funding available.

Electronic warfare comes of age

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated in brutal fashion that dominating in space isn’t just about your hardware. It’s about signals, spectrum, and interference. Attacks on signals can be as impactful as attacks on assets. Nations are therefore likely to invest much more in electronic warfare as well as spectrum protection and secure forms of satellite communication. Those forms of satellite communication that are hard to jam and intercept will be preferred over those that are vulnerable to others’ eavesdropping.

Things are likely to heat up in 2026. The companies with working, scalable technology – and the countries quickest to support them – will lead, driven by mounting geopolitical tension and the coming-of-age of new entrants to the market as well as new technology. Optical communication is likely to become a key pillar of secure global connectivity. Europe may finally start to close the gap between the other global powers and itself. One thing, in any case, is certain: for space, 2026 will not come and go quietly.