The trends that will shape satellite IoT in 2026

Ground Control and the 211 peers we surveyed across Europe working in satellite IoT believe 2026 will see several trends emerge that will be instrumental in shaping the satellite IoT industry.

By Alastair MacLeod, CEO of Ground Control

Alastair MacLeod, CEO of Ground Control

Security and resilience become a top priority

Satellite IoT is no longer a niche, with experts predicting that its subscriber base will reach 32.5 million by 2029. Many industries including shipping, logistics, agriculture, and more are key contributors to this growth and, of course, rapid growth presents challenges.

In our survey, 45 percent of respondents cited security and resilience as the number one factor that will alter the satellite IoT market. Geopolitical uncertainty and rising tensions have dramatically increased demand for secure and resilient connectivity when it comes to critical national infrastructure (CNI) monitoring, maritime operations, and remote industrial telemetry where failure cannot be an option.

While satellite communications have advantages in global coverage and cyber resilience, it’s important to note that they are not immune to threats, as many industries become increasingly concerned about how their data will reach its destination without being compromised. The right mitigation strategies, including encryption and redundancy, need to be in place. When combined with cybersecurity awareness and culture, these strategies will enhance the security capabilities of satellite IoT connectivity. This will be a key market differentiator as we move into 2026.

Advanced tracking solutions, such as Assured Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (APNT) and quantum inertial navigation, will also become increasingly important, complementing flexible connectivity solutions when it comes to combating evolving threats related to drones and robotic technology. Jamming and spoofing attacks have driven redesigns of security blueprints, with APNT systems becoming a core security component.

Diversity increases as next-gen technology becomes more widespread

Starting in 2026, higher-bandwidth modules, such as Iridium Messaging Transport (IMT), will see an increase in adoption rates enabling larger payloads and more frequent updates for richer telemetry. This was also agreed by 45 percent of those we surveyed. Such high-bandwidth modules are often smaller, lighter, and more power-efficient which strengthens their appeal. We expect to see increased migration to these modules over time.

Rather than phasing out legacy technologies any time soon, higher-bandwidth modules will add greater diversity for users, with airtime plans able to be further customized and tailored to their needs.

While established services will continue to play an important role, it is likely that a three-tier structure will begin to emerge over the next 12 months, leading to even more diverse use cases. The tiers will most likely look like this:

• Next-generation services – for example, Iridium Certus 100, Viasat IoT Nano

• Standards-based NTN services – such as Viasat NB-NTN and Iridium NTN Direct

• Current-generation services – including Iridium Short Burst Data

For most organizations, the immediate future will require combining services across tiers to meet specific needs. However, it is important that every company approaches the introduction of new technology carefully and with due consideration. A practical approach is to map applications by required message size, update frequency, power budget, and regulatory and security requirements, then select the correct tier to meet them.

High-profile constellations change the game

Amazon Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, and SpaceX’s Starlink constellations will drive down costs, presenting a real challenge to traditional GEO models. These new entrants are networks designed to deliver high-speed broadband at scale, targeting the consumer market – think connected vehicles and home internet. Four in ten (40 percent) of respondents highlighted new constellations entering the market as a major driving force in 2026.

While their direct relevance to IoT will likely remain limited for some time, their arrival is creating overcapacity in satellite broadband, increasing financial pressure across the entire sector. This market saturation is likely to intensify towards the end of 2026, as the industry undergoes a major reshaping.

These constellations may have a huge influence on the wider connectivity landscape, but they are not yet deployed optimally for IoT operations that require predictability, reliability, and truly global coverage. It is important that the industry continues to focus on its expertise in providing proven, specialized satellite services for IoT deployments, while keeping a close eye on how the market evolves.

Standards-based IoT’s influence continues momentum

Technologies such as NTN NB-IoT allow devices to connect directly to satellites using a single SIM and existing cellular standards. This is resulting in significant reductions in engineering effort and hardware complexity. The result is that satellite connectivity becomes more accessible and simpler to deploy, as agreed by 35 percent of our peers.

The year ahead will see many regional trials of NTN NB-IoT take place, and the challenges of developing and rolling out this standards-based technology will become clearer. The hype will likely die down making way for deeper, more focused engineering work to address these challenges.

One thing is clear: 2026 will be an important step in shaping how quickly, and in which areas, standards-based IoT gains traction moving forward.

AI makes data even more valuable and insightful

In the competitive IoT market, the arms race over how organizations extract the highest value from IoT data will become fiercer, and AI is the key solution. Simply collecting telemetry is no longer enough; companies must now deliver smarter analytics, predictive capabilities, and autonomous decision-making to remain competitive and provide greater value to their customers.

Nearly a quarter (24 percent) of satellite IoT professionals said they expect to see AI having short-term influence, though its importance is expected to grow.

I expect AI to drive forward many evolutions in IoT data insights. Firstly, the quality of data will matter more than ever. Basic, flat reports will no longer suffice. Instead, far richer contextual data and AI-enabled, actionable recommendations will be required.

Secondly, IoT system architecture will become more strategic, with increased investment across edge compute, data pipelines, telemetry frameworks, and orchestration layers.

Thirdly, IoT data will become a competitive battleground. As more organizations adopt AI, those that own higher-quality datasets and operate more sophisticated connectivity models capable of producing rich data will lead the pack.

Overall, the deployment and business case for AI will evolve again next year in line with market demands. But where there is challenge, there is opportunity – and those who embrace it will be best placed to capitalize.

Evolution will be the theme of 2026

External forces such as geopolitical tensions, conflicts, new major market entrants, and rapid technological advancement will have huge impacts on reshaping the satellite IoT market.

The best bet is to plan for resilience rather than pure growth, embrace diversity in connectivity solutions, focus on core strengths, avoid reactive decision-making, and build strong data foundations.

Change is inevitable, and while it brings challenges, the winners in 2026 will be those that treat resilience, migration planning, and data discipline as strategic priorities, not engineering afterthoughts.